If you've ever wondered why I post agent market share numbers for this area, and I've been doing it for 25 years, there's a reason. You can read that here.
But one thing I never do is disclose the agent production for other agents who have sales in the Fairview, Lucas, and Parker sub-market. That is, unless it helps paint a picture of market conditions, and in this report, there is one.
Kevin Kernan has been the top agent in Heritage Ranch of Fairview for a long time. No other agent is close to his production. Heritage Ranch is an active-living 55+ development with nice, affordable (for this area) homes on zero-lot-line lots. Because the lots are so small, they're also known for being the least expensive homes in this area by quite a bit.
Look at Kevin Kernan's, numbers, highlighted in yellow. Last year through July 8th, he had 17 home sales with an average sale price of $510K. This year, he's had even more, 20 home sales. That's almost twice as many as my 11 home sales, and I'm in second place. So what's the difference? His homes averaged $426K, and my larger homes, all on at least one acre, averaged $1.27 million.
There's something else very telling. The number of "Non-NTREIS MLS Licensee" (agents who don't participate in the MLS) sold a total of 24 homes last year by July 8th, and this year they've only sold 8.
What Does All This Mean?
In my opinion, Boomers are selling their more expensive homes and downsizing into Heritage Ranch. That price point is still moving well, but sellers of the more expensive luxury homes aren't getting great showing activity, let alone offers.
Last year we sold a total of $56 million in FLP, and this year, more than halfway through, we're only at $13.9 million. That's a big decrease; I can't remember the last time I saw a year-over-year decline like that.
I thought this would be the year some agent might blow by me with sales out here, but it's not happening. I drive by nice listings our competitors have all the time, and they're just sitting there week after week. We've got the highest-producing office in all of Collin County, so if we're feeling the pain, I imagine the other offices and their agents are feeling it as well.
Here's something else to consider. We're well into the peak selling season, and our rule of thumb is to expect a market slowdown by July. Parents are focused on getting their kids into school, not buying a new home. If August plays out as we normally expect, it really slows down. Those closings are almost all the result of homes that have been in title for a while. There aren't a lot of new contracts coming in.
If You're the Seller, What Can You Do?
Be conservative on your pricing. You might love your home and believe someone will overpay for it, but they won't. They'll just go down the street and buy another home that's more reasonably priced.
Don't try to hit the home run. This is not the market for it.
When an offer comes in at a reasonable price, try to make the deal. It may be your only opportunity this year to sell your home.
If you are placing your trust in an agent on pricing, listen to them. They're out in the market every day watching what's happening; you're not.
Getting a listing is one of the easiest things to do these days. All you have to do is tell the seller prospect what you think they want to hear, even if the comps don't support it. That's a recipe for disaster, and we won't do it. We've already had to respectfully decline listing opportunities this year for expensive homes because we just couldn't justify the seller's asking price. Other agents took the homes at the higher listed price, and they're still sitting there.
The market will eventually turn for the better. It always does, and it always comes back stronger. I've been through too many of these cycles over the years to remember, and there's still no place I'd rather be selling homes than right where we are.
